The Alaska Department of Fish and Game is forecasting a record 406,000 tons of mature herring in Sitka Sound this year. Aaron Dupuis is the area management biologist for ADF&G. In an interview with KCAW, he said the large population estimate is mainly due to two very large age classes– 8 year old herring and 4 year old herring.  

“Two unprecedented age classes are occurring right on top of each other,” Dupuis said. “And that’s something we haven’t seen before.”

A big population estimate means a big guideline harvest level. This year, the state has set the GHL at 80,000 tons, the largest in history. 

“The reason why the GHL is very large is because the forecast biomass is very large,” Dupuis said. “The formula that the department applies hasn’t changed. It’s still a 20% harvest rate based on a formula, so when the GHL goes up, that means that the forecasted biomass is going up…and that’s a good thing.” 

Last year, the state’s guideline harvest level was set at 30,000 tons, but seiners only caught around a third of what was allowed. The second highest ever GHL was set in 2022 at 45,000 tons. That year, seiners caught a little over half of what the state allowed, but it was still the highest ever herring harvest at 25,000 tons.

Dupuis said this year they’ll likely only scratch the surface of the state’s GHL. 

“It’s not physically possible to harvest 80,000 tons, right, in the amount of time. I mean, if we started right now, and fished every single day, maybe. But, I mean, obviously, that doesn’t happen,” Dupuis said. “We only have a short window for the harvest to take place. And I mean, just the way that everything’s configured, it’s going to be a fraction of the GHL that gets harvested this year.”

Dupuis says for the last couple of years processing capacity, rather than the size or marketability of the fish, has been what’s constrained the fishery, and large GHLs tend to drive down the price, and make the fishery less competitive.

Dupuis says he’s spoken with processors, and while a few are still on the fence, most plan to participate this year. But it’s still too soon to say how many permit holders will fish. For the last two years, they’ve been fishing using what Dupuis calls a “competitive light” strategy, where several boats partner up to catch fish for one processor, then they each take a cut of the profits. 

Tlingit peoples and other Alaska Natives have relied on and enjoyed herring eggs for generations. Continuing the centuries-old tradition of its harvest, Sitka Tribe of Alaska employees sorted through a truck load of herring eggs, about 700 pounds, to weigh and distribute to community elders.

That’s in addition to 1,000 pounds distributed last weekend, according to cultural resources coordinator Tammy Young. Herring eggs were harvested later in the year than usual, Young said.

“Usually, the herring spawn before now,” she said. “We’re experiencing so much change in our seasons here for a lot of different reasons. But the herring seem to be pushed further and further from Sitka.”

Still, she says the harvest is a cause for celebration every year.

“We always have some of our elder aunties come, stop by, offer us encouragement and say ‘oh, that looks so good!,” Young said. “We appreciate it when our elders come and check on our progress.”